OSCAR WATCH – Pre Christmas predictions

No matter how many you love, there can only be one. Welcome, to Oscar Watch.

They’re coming. You can’t stop it. The highs, the lows, the unnecessary competition. On Boxing Day, the Academy will have nomination ballots mailed to them, and on January 22nd, the five contenders in each category will be announced. So with less than a month to go, I thought I’d weigh in with my predictions. And I’ve got to say, I’m feeling pretty confidant so far.

Best Picture:

1. Slumdog Millionaire

2. Frost/Nixon
3. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
4. Milk
5. WALL-E

Still in the Running: The Dark Knight, The Wrestler

Slumdog Millionaire entered the race as the underdog, but after 11 (!) Best Picture awards from various critics groups, it’s now the one to beat. Buzz for Benjamin Button is dying, while WALL-E and The Dark Knight continue to pick up steam. And part of me is praying that people fall in love with The Wrestler enough to push it into the top 5.

Best Director:

1. Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire

2. David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. Ron Howard – Frost/Nixon
4. Gus Van Sant – Milk
5. Darren Aronofsky – The Wrestler

Still in the Running: Christopher Nolan – The Dark Knight

Danny Boyle juggles a lot in Slumdog, including innovative camerawork and a prickly storyline. He’s also a great director who is yet to be recognised by the academy (although the same can be said about Fincher, Van Sant, Aronofsky and Nolan!)

Best Actor:

1. Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler

2. Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon
3. Sean Penn – Milk
4. Brad Pitt – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5. Richard Jenkins – The Visitor

Still in the Running: Leonardo DiCaprio – Revolutionary Road, Clint Eastwood – Gran Torino

Langella is great, and Penn is the favourite, but Rourke’s performance connects with the audience on a whole other level. It’s a once in a lifetime portrayal of a broken man, and it could only come from the former 80’s idol.

Best Actress:

1. Meryl Streep – Doubt

2. Kristin Scott Thomas – I’ve Loved You So Long
3. Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married
4. Sally Hawkins – Happy Go Lucky
5. Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road

Still in the Running: Angelina Jolie – Changeling

Sadly, I’m yet to see most of these films so I’m placing a blind bet. But come on – it’s Meryl. Deep down I’m praying Sally Hawkins gets to walk to the podium for her performance as the endlessly chipper Poppy in Happy Go Lucky.

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight

2. Robert Downey Jr – Tropic Thunder
3. Philip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt
4. Michael Shannon –Revolutionary Road
5. Dev Patel – Slumdog Millionaire

Still in the Running: Michael Sheen – Frost/Nixon, Josh Brolin and James Franco – Milk

It’s pretty much been Heath’s award since the first trailer arrived, but no other category has so many talented performers competing for a place. Robert Downey Jr has become a genuine threat (which makes me endlessly happy). However, if the stars don’t align and Heath misses out, it could honestly go to any other contender.

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Penelope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona

2. Amy Adams – Doubt
3. Viola Davis – Doubt
4. Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler
5. Kate Winslet – The Reader

Still in the Running: Rosemarie DeWitt – Rachel Getting Married, Taraji P. Henson – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Possibly the most boring category, this years nominees are pertty much set (in fact, my predictions are pretty much sticking to the Golden Globes party line). Penelope steals VCB with a fiery performance, and she’s won virtually all the precursors. This race is over.

Best Original Screenplay:

1. WALL-E

2. Vicky Cristina Barcelona
3. Milk
4. The Wrestler
5. Burn After Reading

Still in the Running: Happy Go Lucky

God I hope WALL-E can pick up more than just Best Animated Feature (which it already has in the bank). Academy favourites Woody Allen and The Coen Brothers are likely to get noms for Vicky Cristina and Burn After Reading. However, newcomers Dustin Lance Black and Robert Siegal are posing a threat for their respective films (Milk and The Wrestler).

Best Adapted Screenplay:

1. Frost/Nixon

2. Slumdog Millionaire
3. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
4. Doubt
5. The Dark Knight

Still in the Running: Revolutionary Road

Frost/Nixon screenwriter Peter Morgan adapted his own play into an electrifying film (John Patrick Shanley did the same with Doubt). Benjamin Button and Revolutionary Road take on some heady literature, but The Dark Knight tackled different aspects from famous Batman comics The Long Halloween and The Killing Joke, to create a surprising, and incredibly satisfying beast. This one will be to the wire.

Let us know what you think – Will any movie make a sweep? Is The Dark Knight a legitimate threat? Could Heath possibly lose?