OSCAR WATCH – Final Predictions!

Well, it’s been a hell of an Awards season. If you would have told me 12 months ago that the new Batman film and a movie that almost went straight-to-DVD would be duking it out for Oscar supremacy, I would have laughed in your face. And then I would have slapped it. But that’s exactly the kind of awards season it’s been.

After slaving away with several statisticians, three Las Vegas bookies and one cosmically approved psychic, I have put together my final predictions for Oscar night. Feel free to argue with me in the comments. I guarantee some of these guesses will embarrass me in the future.

Slumdog Millionaire has picked up the DGA, the WGA, the PGA, the SAG the BAFTA, and pretty much any other acronym you can think of. Along with its Golden Globe victory, it has achieved a precursor sweep unseen since American Beauty‘s coronation in 1999. Surely a lock.

Slumdog Millionaire director Danny Boyle has picked up the BAFTA, the Golden Globe and the Directors Guild award. He also has the distinct advantage of helming a film that people kinda love (sorry David Fincher!). A great (previously unrewarded) filmmaker who has been particularly humble on the awards circuit. Pencil him in.

Kate Winslet has swept the precursors, but for her performance in Revolutionary Road, not The Reader (which she is nominated for here). Up to this point, her Reader role has been judged against supporting actresses. Will the Academy back her against Meryl Streep or Anne Hathaway? I (reluctantly) think so.

The only real race this year. Deciding between Mickey Rourke for his performance in The Wrestler and Sean Penn in Milk is near impossible. However, Penn’s aloof personality might give the humble and emotionally open Rourke the edge. And don’t even think the Academy doesn’t consider stupid stuff like that.

It’s a brand new day with Winslet out of the race. Penelope Cruz is now the frontrunner for her role in Vicky Cristina Barcelona, although I’m not completely willing to disregard Amy Adams‘ chances for her performance in Doubt.

Surely in the bag by now. Heath Ledger definitely deserved his nomination for The Dark Knight, although some cynics believe his untimely death has given the nomination a false sense of entitlement. Well, they’re wrong. Hate to be the guy that beats him.

Milk won the Writers Guild Award, but didn’t actually face off against any other Oscar nominees. In Bruges won the BAFTA, but we’re not in England anymore. So my tip goes to WALL-E. The original screenplay category normally congratulates the most innovative and culturally defining film of the year, and let’s be honest – that film was WALL-E. Don’t be surprised if there is a late swell of support for Milk though.



Winner: WALL-E

Winner: Waltz With Bashir

Winner: Man on Wire

Winner: The Dark Knight

Winner: Slumdog Millionaire

Winner: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Winner: Slumdog Millionaire – A.R Rahman for “Jai Ho”

Winner: WALL-E

Winner: Milk

Winner: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Winner: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button


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One Response to “OSCAR WATCH – Final Predictions!”

  1. For the biggest prize, the Academy will choose a traditional Hollywood film over an exotic and daring choice, so Best Picture goes to Ben Button.

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